The ND-GAIN team is currently working on a paper that examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic conditions on the probability of armed conflict in Africa.

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ABSTRACT

The dynamic relationships between climate change and conflict have been discussed at length, but there have been few studies that integrate spatial-temporal dimensions of climate adaptation into armed conflict. By using geospatial grids for climate change and armed conflict, and country level climate vulnerability measures of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, we empirically examine the effects of climatic and non-climatic conditions on the probability of armed conflict in Africa. Results suggest that there are close links between climate drivers and armed conflict. Importantly, greater levels of adaptive capacity lead to a lower likelihood of armed conflict. From a policy perspective our results suggest that enhancing adaptive capacity under conditions of climate pressure will reduce the probability of people taking up arms in response to water scarcity.