Tutorial: Understanding your Future Risk
Welcome to your City Profile - a place where you can explore data for five key hazards: flood, heat, cold, sea level rise, and drought. Your city’s demographic information and overall risk and readiness scores will remain accessible at the top of the page. Overall risk and readiness scores provide an indication of how well cities performed on all of our indicators, irrespective of hazard. Within each hazard’s window, risk and readiness indicators are listed in a separate tab. Definitions and sources for each indicator can be expanded and hidden with a click.
Risk and readiness indicators are based on climate change adaptation indicators recognized in contemporary literature. Each hazard has a Potential Future Cost window that provides information on the historical and projected cost or casualties and probability of a hazard occurrence in 2040. This information is critical in assessing the vulnerabilities of your city. Costs in US Dollars, and casualties have been recorded using historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The UAA also uses the MACA data portal to estimate the probability that a city will experience a flood or other hazard in the year 2040. There are many ways to define the conditions for a hazard in your city. The UAA estimates for the likelihood of experiencing a particular hazard require that stringent conditions be met. Definitions and data sources are available simply by hovering over the question mark (?) icon.
The projected loss of each hazard integrates the hazard’s probability of occurrence, based on historical data. For example in South Bend, the projected cost of a flood is one million one hundred eighty-eight thousand seventy-five US dollars. This is the estimated average loss across all cities which are then applied to this city) based on their respective Risk and Readiness values. In 2040, this city also has a high probability of flood occurrence. Each hazard can be assessed in this way referring to the projected cost and probability of occurrence simply by toggling through each tab. Numerical probabilities for each hazard are available in the downloadable data.
Resources put toward adaptation efforts should have a payoff value. Spending funds to mitigate the impacts of a hazard with a low probability of occurrence may not be the best expenditure of funds. Review the potential future cost for each hazard as well as its probability to help determine where best to focus your efforts.