Across Latin America and the Caribbean, communities are living in the realities of climate disruption. From hurricanes in Haiti to droughts in Central America, these events test infrastructure and the systems that enable people to adapt, recover, and thrive.
To better understand what drives resilience, the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) undertook a two-stage study focused on five countries: Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, and Haiti. The goal was to identify what strengthens a country’s adaptive capacity, what relevant measurements already exist, and where gaps remain.
In Stage One, the research team identified past climate events and how they appear in ND-GAIN national data. Following extreme events, certain health and governance-related metrics captured impacts. Yet, at the national scale, many impacts were not reflected in existing indicators.
Stage Two focused on identifying key factors of adaptive capacity and its measurement. The team identified assets and organization as two factors that consistently stood out across countries and contexts. Assets – such as income, savings, and access to capital – act as a buffer in times of crisis, giving households and communities the flexibility to respond, recover, and rebuild. Organization reflects the strength of institutions, networks, and community structures that enable coordinated action throughout disruption, recovery, and adaptation planning.
The study also highlighted the importance of preconditions, underlying challenges like inequality, corruption, and weak state capacity. Poor preconditions can limit progress even when strong programs or interventions are in place.
Across the analysis, several high-impact approaches emerged. Programs that provide income – such as Payment for Environmental Services (PES) programs – show strong links to improved outcomes. Expanding access to capital can help households build wealth and resilience over time. Community-driven efforts are often important for long-term success. Local organizations, like cooperatives, can serve as hubs for market access, knowledge sharing, environmental management, and community empowerment. By strengthening these local systems, investments can create ripple effects across multiple dimensions of resilience.
"Resilience is built from the ground up,” said Danielle Wood, ND-GAIN Director. “This research reinforces that assets, organization, and strong local institutions are not just supporting factors; they are the foundation communities need to adapt and thrive in the face of climate uncertainty."
As part of understanding adaptive capacity, the study inventoried and mapped available measurements. Two key challenges emerged: mismatches in scale and missing data. As a result, several adaptive capacity factors remain difficult to measure with existing tools. By defining the qualities of adaptive capacity first, this research opens the door to developing metrics in the future.
Building adaptive capacity is not a one-size-fits-all effort. While the core drivers may be consistent, effective solutions must be tailored to local contexts. In a world of increasing climate uncertainty, this study shows that resilience is about building the foundations that allow communities to adapt, grow, and thrive, regardless of what comes next.
This research team included Danielle Wood, ND-GAIN Director, Thomas Mustillo, Associate Professor of Global Affairs, Brian Wanbaugh, ND-GAIN Program Manager, and Master of Global Affairs students Eduardo Pages Jimenez, Mikaela Bona, and Mohammad Farrae.
View the study here.