The ND-GAIN team is currently working on a paper that develops a model of the relationship between climate change induced extreme weather disasters and agricultural output between 1995 and 2010. Read Working Paper

ABSTRACT

Recent studies have estimated that climate generated extreme weather disasters have reduced crop yields globally by up to 10%. By incorporating measures of adaptive capacity, we develop a model of the relationship between climate change induced extreme weather disasters and agricultural output between 1995 and 2010. To our minds this is the first systematic effort to account for agricultural outcomes by controlling for social capabilities to counteract the pressures from the climate. Using panel data models, we find that at the national level, the greater the adaptive capability of a country the more attenuated are the expected agricultural losses from climate events. In effect climate related agricultural consequences vary as a function of the heterogeneity across countries. Much of this heterogeneity in adaptive capacity is a result of policy choices structural preparedness. We use our results to draw inferences about crop yields under different levels of adaptive capacity in the context of climate change.